Mandels Mailbag: James Franklin or Dabo Swinney nearing the hot seat?

As you can imagine, one topic dominated my mailbox more than any other. Strangely, it was Iowa. As you’ll see in a bit.

But there’s a different Big Ten school in the news right now.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.) 

If the Big Ten has concrete evidence of Michigan violating rules to compromise on-field play and competitiveness, how does the conference allow them to go to Indy? — Robert H.

Should Michigan be banned from this year’s CFP? — Lance M.

A lot of people (not just Michigan fans) thought I was nuts for throwing out these possibilities last Friday. But I’ve noticed public opinion has shifted since ESPN’s very-detailed report Monday alleging that Michigan staffer Connor Stalions purchased tickets to more than 30 games at 11 Big Ten schools over the last three years, and that video evidence exists of a person in those seats “filming the home team’s sideline the entire game.”

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As I wrote Friday, what makes this case so unique is that it involves potential violations that affect the current season. Not Jeremy Pruitt giving a player cash in a Chick-fil-A bag three years ago, or an LSU player’s dad receiving embezzled money from a booster in 2015. The allegations being investigated here involve a contender for this year’s national championship allegedly gaining a competitive advantage in its games via an illicit spying scheme. There’s a case to be made that a potential punishment should be handled more urgently than usual.

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Stalions bought tickets to watch at least 7 Michigan opponents: Sources

There are three parties — the NCAA, the Big Ten and the CFP — that could theoretically take action against the Wolverines, but really, there’s only one that could realistically do it. The NCAA has a standard enforcement process that takes months, if not years, to complete. And it’s not the CFP’s role to levy punishments. The committee has the leeway to dock Michigan in its rankings, but I don’t think they’d want to set that precedent.

It’s really up to Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, who has blanket authorization to “take disciplinary action” if he determines someone has violated the league’s sportsmanship policy. That policy states right off the top: “The Big Ten Conference expects all contests involving a member institution to be conducted without compromise to any fundamental element of sportsmanship.” What Stalions allegedly did on Michigan’s behalf seems just a little bit compromised and unsportsmanlike.

Of course, Pettiti would need his hands on the same video/paper trail reportedly sent to the NCAA. He would need to feel comfortable taking action before the completion of the NCAA’s investigation. And then there’s the billion-dollar elephant in the room: He’d risk alienating Fox, the Big Ten’s primary TV partner, by staging a conference championship game without the best team in the conference.

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But he’s also tasked with protecting the interests of all 14 members of his league, and, based on ESPN’s report, at least 11 were directly impacted by Michigan’s alleged scheme. They have a basic expectation of fairness in conference-sponsored competitions. And they are no doubt furious at what’s allegedly transpired, so much so that a school or schools felt compelled to turn Michigan in.

I’m with Robert. If the evidence supports it, I don’t think a school that blatantly violated the league’s sportsmanship policy should be allowed to compete for its championship. Note that would not preclude the Wolverines from playing in a bowl game, and the CFP could still rank them in the top four, allowing them to still contend for the national championship. But the more we learn about the allegations, the more I believe this is primarily a Big Ten-centric issue.

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Mandel: If Michigan is guilty of allegations, will Big Ten protect integrity of its contests?

What would the forecast look like for a 12-team Playoff with current results but future alignment (e.g. Washington and Oregon in Big Ten with Michigan and Ohio State)? Who would you predict to win those new leagues? Is the six-highest conference champions model going to create a huge rift in the No. 6 vs. No. 7 seed? — Michael A.

This is so hard to answer without knowing what becomes of the Pac-2, but I do think they’ll have to stick with the 6-6 model for the first two seasons, simply because it requires a unanimous vote to change the current contract. For the purposes of this exercise, though, I’m sticking Oregon State and Wazzu in the Mountain West, which means two G5 champs would get in.

Here’s my projected field. Note: I was able to use 2024 schedules for the Big Ten and SEC, but not the ACC and Big 12.

Top 4 seeds (first-round byes):

No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Michigan (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Florida State (ACC champ)
No. 4 Utah (Big 12 champ)

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Seeds 5-12:

No. 5 Washington (11-2, Big Ten at-large)
No. 6 Oklahoma (11-2, SEC at-large)
No. 7 Ohio State (10-2, Big Ten at-large)
No. 8 Oregon (10-2, Big Ten at-large)
No. 9 Texas (10-2, SEC at-large)
No. 10 Alabama (10-2, SEC at-large)
No. 11 Oregon State (12-1, MWC champ)
No. 12 Tulane (10-3, AAC champ)

First team out: Notre Dame (10-2)

If you’re someone who worries that the Big Ten and SEC will hog all the at-large spots — this isn’t exactly reassuring. But, this happens to be a year when none of the Big 12 holdovers have been particularly impressive, and FSU seems head-and-shoulders above the rest of the ACC.

This also shows why they will almost certainly change it to five champs/seven at-larges as soon as possible. You’d get a Washington-Tulane quarterfinal instead of, based on my projection, a Washington-Notre Dame quarterfinal.

The SEC and Big Ten will make sure that scenario gets quashed in the next contract.

As a Penn State fan, do I just need to accept the fact that we will never be an elite team and enjoy my 10-win seasons and New Year’s Six bowl appearances? As a fan, shouldn’t you always want to win national championships? Why can we not be like LSU, which is less consistent but has won three national championships since 2000? — Anthony, Columbus, Ohio

Penn State can’t be like LSU because the state of Pennsylvania is not the same recruiting gold mine as the state of Louisiana. But as a program that has won national championships in the modern era (1982 and 1986), regularly recruits top-10 to top-15 classes, plays in a 110,000-seat stadium and whose athletic department is in the top 10 in revenue, it should absolutely aspire to national championships.

Love him or hate him, James Franklin is going to be Penn State’s coach for as long as he wants to be there. The school gave him his own Jimbo Fisher/Mel Tucker contract in 2021. Since Saturday’s loss, I’ve heard people suggest he should be fired because he can’t win big games, but that would cost a mere $65 million. He’s the guy who has to figure out how to crack the ceiling.

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Penn State takeaways: James Franklin on how he should be judged, more from Ohio State loss

However, there’s a big factor that’s going to change the equation soon: The 12-team Playoff. Going 10-2, losing your two biggest games but beating Utah in the Rose Bowl, may not be as satisfying as it once was, but I would think going 10-2 and beating Utah in a CFP quarterfinal would be. And then who knows, maybe once every four or five years Franklin fields a team that can make a serious run to the championship game. But he’ll have to actually beat a top-10 team or two to do so.

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If LSU’s offense teamed up with Iowa’s defense and played a team with Iowa’s offense and LSU’s defense, what would the final margin of the game be? (Three-digit answers allowed.) — Isaac P.

The Iowa offense vs. Iowa defense component terrifies me. If you think these Big Ten West games are ugly, imagine a 1s vs. 1s scrimmage in Iowa City.

LSU offense/Iowa defense 51 (there would almost certainly be a safety), Iowa offense/LSU defense 0.

This might be an overreaction, but what would it take for Dabo to be on the hot seat? Does Clemson consider itself a place where nine to 10 wins isn’t enough? — Charlie P.

Just as with Franklin, it would take boatloads of cash. His buyout is $64 million.

But even if money weren’t an object, running off Dabo for no longer going to the Playoff year after year would be incredibly short-sighted. We’re still talking about Little Ol’ Clemson, which had won one national championship and posted six top-10 seasons in the seven decades before Dabo took the reins. Under his watch, the Tigers have finished that high in seven of the last eight seasons. His run of six consecutive Playoff berths and five national title games in six years was a ridiculous accomplishment.

No question, his program is slipping. With games remaining against Notre Dame and North Carolina, it would not surprise me if Clemson finishes the regular season 7-5, which would be its worst mark in 13 years. But if anyone has earned the right to try to figure out how to turn it around, it’s him.

Whether he can do that, who can say?

There is no shortage of examples of successful coaches at prominent programs who experienced a slide and coached their way out of it. After falling to 8-5 in 2014, Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops brought in then-unsung OC Lincoln Riley and posted consecutive top-five seasons before retiring. After a disastrous 4-8 mark in 2016, Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly shook up his entire staff, most notably hiring DC Mike Elko, and posted five double-digit win seasons in a row before going to LSU. And most recently, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh rose from the ashes of that 2-4 season in 2020 and won the next two Big Ten championships, to go with two NCAA investigations.

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Dabo’s big shakeup after last season was to bring in OC Garrett Riley, but that has not proven to be the fix. I sound like a broken record at this point, but if he were to just start using the portal to upgrade his roster like every other coach in the sport, Clemson would likely rise back up pretty quickly.

If not, then we enter what I like to call Bobby Bowden Territory. After leading Florida State to an insane 14 consecutive top-four finishes from 1987-2000, the Noles began a descent into mediocrity that wound up spanning an entire decade. They were still a Top 25 program but with records like 9-3 and 8-5 rather than 11-1. Pushing him out remained unthinkable until things got desperate in 2007 and FSU brought in Jimbo Fisher as OC and head coach in waiting. Two years later, Bowden was finally nudged out.

Today, I can’t imagine a struggling coach, no matter how accomplished, would be afforded a decade to turn things around. But for what Dabo has done for that program and that university, he’s going to be exempt from any hot seats for quite some time.

Can we start talking about Mizzou now or do the Tigers need to upset Georgia to be taken seriously? Is there a team with more out-of-nowhere TCU upside at this point? I’ve seen very little national coverage of one of the better teams in the country up to this point. — Logan C.

You’d probably see a lot more coverage if the Tigers had held on against LSU. If you’ll recall, Mizzou led at one point 22-7, and, even as Jayden Daniels went off, it was still 39-35 Mizzou with a little over three minutes remaining. But Daniels hit Malik Nabers for another go-ahead TD, and Major Burns tacked on a pick six to make the final score 49-39 LSU.

Missouri has not gone quietly into the night, though. In its two games since, the Tigers ran away from Kentucky in the fourth quarter to win 38-21 in Lexington and waxed South Carolina 38-12 at home. Neither of those opponents are particularly good, but Mizzou was assumed to be in the same tier coming into the season. Instead, the 7-1 Tigers have unleashed a powerful offense behind QB Brady Cook (No. 12 nationally in passer rating), RB Cody Schrader (No. 15 in rushing at 101 YPG) and midseason All-American WR Luther Burden (No. 4 at 113 YPG).

It’s pretty simple: A week from Saturday, Missouri has a chance to indisputably announce itself. It goes to Athens to face the two-time defending national champs. The Tigers will be heavy underdogs, and I myself would have a hard time picking them to win in Athens. But they might catch one fortunate break: No Brock Bowers. Without its all-everything tight end, Georgia may be limited offensively. (We’ll find out this week against Florida.) That would help because Mizzou is not great defensively, but it’s likely to bust some big plays on offense, even against the Dawgs’ SEC-leading defense.

Win that, and Mizzou goes from under-the-radar to CFP contender overnight. Lose, and the buzz wears off a bit. However, the Tigers then close with three winnable games against Tennessee and Florida at home and at Arkansas. A 10-2 season with potentially a New Year’s Six bowl berth would be a heck of a moment for Eli Drinkwitz’s program.

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Is Iowa’s magnificently terrible offense actually good for Iowa? This might be the most that anyone has ever talked about Iowa. — Josh, Austin, Texas

I know they say any publicity is good publicity, but I’m not sure this publicity is particularly helpful for anyone but opposing recruiters.

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Dochterman: Winning ugly is the enemy of progress for Iowa football

Would you shut Caleb Williams down and let him prepare for the NFL Draft? With two losses, USC has nothing to play for this season and Williams is gone anyway. USC should give Malachi Nelson a chance to prepare for next year’s Big Ten season. — John B.

Lincoln Riley’s job is to win as many football games as possible, so no, I don’t think he would voluntarily shut down his star quarterback and basically tank the season. That decision would have to come from Williams, who, as best as I can tell, has never given any indication he’s considering doing that but is now getting blamed as if he did due to his sideline demeanor at the end of the Utah game and comments made by certain TV analysts.

I realize a few high draft picks (Ja’Marr Chase, Micah Parsons, Rashawn Slater) did the opt-out thing during COVID, but I wouldn’t recommend it for a quarterback. We’re well past the point of people criticizing guys for opting out of bowl games, but skipping out on the last third of the season and leaving your teammates to fend for themselves would not go over well with some NFL teams. You can already see some inevitable Caleb backlash brewing. As is customary whenever there’s a supposed clear-cut No. 1 pick, I have no doubt certain draft pundits will spend the next six months talking themselves into Drake Maye or Marvin Harrison Jr. for the No. 1 pick.

Williams hasn’t been his usual Superman self the past few games, but with hindsight, I’m not sure he could have. I know USC’s defense gets most of the blame for its disappointing season, but watching Jordan Addison tear it up for the Vikings on Monday night, I couldn’t help thinking how much Williams benefitted from a superb supporting cast last season. Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff winner at Pitt, was his top target. Veteran RB and Oregon transfer Travis Dye did not make an NFL roster, but he was a heck of a leader for last year’s Trojans. And their offensive line was much steadier.

Sulking on the bench at the end of a loss was probably not the best look, but I don’t blame Williams for being frustrated. He has gotten zero help this season.

Give me a top 25-to-40 defense, but on offense, I get the “All Stars” from between Iowa, Penn State, Clemson and Arkansas. Could I win a conference championship in one of the Power 5 Leagues? — Ward, Birmingham, Ala.

No, you could not. But you’d get to enjoy New Year’s in Tampa or Jacksonville. And a bonus for averaging 25.1 points per game.

(Top photo of James Franklin: Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)

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